By 2030, the costs for the Netherlands could run up to 1.2% of GDP, or 10 billion euros.
And, if we also assume innovation is trade-induced as recent examples in the literature have shown, then the Brexit-related costs of 10 billion euros could increase with another 65%.
Should the EU and the UK reach a free trade agreement, the economic consequences of a Brexit for the Netherlands would be reduced by 20%, because one of the important elements of such an agreement would be that NTBs will increase by only 6%, instead of the 13% under WTO regulations.
[ CPB – June 9, 2016 ]
