Think-Tanks'Press

The talks on creation of free trade zones with Serbia and Israel are ongoing.

It is still unclear what the EU’s reaction would be to Belgrade’s EEU plans, which in the current geopolitical context could be seen as further rapprochement with Russia, especially given the fact that Serbia refused to implement sanctions on Russia.

It would be the first case of a candidate country concluding a free trade agreement with the EEU, and experts are still debating the EU’s possible response. The agreement is unlikely to succeed if Belgrade faces considerable, explicit or implicit, constraints from the EU.  Within the context of Brexit and other European crises, some might find it rational for Belgrade to pursue multiple vectors of economic integration, especially in the Eurasian/Asian direction.

However, at the moment, both Brussels and Belgrade remain committed to the negotiation. It is not yet clear whether Serbia will be able to convince the EU that this agreement with the EEU is not “anti-European”. It will be Belgrade’s responsibility to prove that that managing both integration processes is not a zero-sum game.

In short, leading Republicans want the TPP and prefer that Trump try to fix it instead of rejecting it. And almost every major US farm and industry association supports the TPP.

Fixes to specific problems with TPP provisions cited by the pharmaceutical and financial services industries had been substantially completed by President Obama and USTR Michael Froman in anticipation of a vote on TPP implementing legislation during the lame-duck session of Congress after the election. Trump’s election abruptly stopped that legislative effort and the targeted revisions to TPP obligations. A new negotiation would allow improvements to be included in the core treaty text.

Reopening trade negotiations also allows the addition of new participants. Those that had been most interested in joining a high-standard Asia-Pacific pact included Korea, Taiwan, and Colombia. Inviting these countries to join the original TPP signatories in a broader Asia-Pacific trade initiative would provide several additional benefits.