Think-Tanks'Press

The talks on creation of free trade zones with Serbia and Israel are ongoing.

It is still unclear what the EU’s reaction would be to Belgrade’s EEU plans, which in the current geopolitical context could be seen as further rapprochement with Russia, especially given the fact that Serbia refused to implement sanctions on Russia.

It would be the first case of a candidate country concluding a free trade agreement with the EEU, and experts are still debating the EU’s possible response. The agreement is unlikely to succeed if Belgrade faces considerable, explicit or implicit, constraints from the EU.  Within the context of Brexit and other European crises, some might find it rational for Belgrade to pursue multiple vectors of economic integration, especially in the Eurasian/Asian direction.

However, at the moment, both Brussels and Belgrade remain committed to the negotiation. It is not yet clear whether Serbia will be able to convince the EU that this agreement with the EEU is not “anti-European”. It will be Belgrade’s responsibility to prove that that managing both integration processes is not a zero-sum game.

In short, leading Republicans want the TPP and prefer that Trump try to fix it instead of rejecting it. And almost every major US farm and industry association supports the TPP.

Fixes to specific problems with TPP provisions cited by the pharmaceutical and financial services industries had been substantially completed by President Obama and USTR Michael Froman in anticipation of a vote on TPP implementing legislation during the lame-duck session of Congress after the election. Trump’s election abruptly stopped that legislative effort and the targeted revisions to TPP obligations. A new negotiation would allow improvements to be included in the core treaty text.

Reopening trade negotiations also allows the addition of new participants. Those that had been most interested in joining a high-standard Asia-Pacific pact included Korea, Taiwan, and Colombia. Inviting these countries to join the original TPP signatories in a broader Asia-Pacific trade initiative would provide several additional benefits.

Why it matters

› Public safety: Incarcerated people who participate in prison education programs are 43 percent less likely to recidivate than those who do not. Fewer crimes and less rule-breaking on post-release supervision lead to fewer crime victims and enable probation and parole agencies to concentrate their resources on their riskiest supervisees.

› Facility safety: Prisons with college programs have fewer violent incidents, creating safer working conditions for staff and safer living environments for incarcerated people.

› Preparing for post-release jobs and successful reentry: By 2020, 65 percent of jobs will require postsecondary education and training beyond high school. However, only 11 percent of incarcerated people in state prisons and 24 percent of those in federal prisons have completed at least some postsecondary education.

› Taxpayer savings/Return on investment: Every dollar invested in prison-based education yields $4 to $5 of taxpayer savings in reduced incarceration costs.

› Stronger families and communities: When parents — including those who are incarcerated — complete college, their children are more likely to do so, thereby disrupting the typical cycle of poverty and incarceration.

In the first-ever speech by a Chinese president in Davos, Xi Jinping offered a strong defense of globalization and China’s help in securing growth and protecting the global economic order. “We must remain committed to developing global free trade and investment, (…) and say no to protectionism,” Xi said.

His keynote address at this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) also contained a warning to the incoming U.S. president Donald Trump: “No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war,” said Xi. He also warned the U.S. from pulling out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, reminding all signatories of their “responsibility for future generations.”

Just hours before Xi’s speech, China’s State Council released a list of guidelines to increase market access for foreign investors in China’s manufacturing and energy sectors. It also urged local authorities not to discriminate against foreign companies.

The move is a reaction to complaints in the international business community about a lack of reciprocity as China exports products and invests abroad, while limiting foreign access to its own markets and distorts competition by state intervention.

Chinese companies may be able to sell their shares in Germany as early as this year. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) announced the plan to issue the so-called “D shares” on January 8. They would be listed and traded at the Frankfurt-based China Europe International Exchange AG (CEINEX), which was set up jointly by the SSE, Deutsche Börse AG and China Financial Futures Exchange in 2015. The plan still needs to be approved by German and Chinese regulators.

It remains to be seen how German investors react to shares of companies registered in China. Investors may view Chinese shares as a riskier investment, especially after the Chinese stock market crash in 2015. On the other hand, a number of leading Chinese companies had successful IPOs in the U.S., showing that the acquisition of shares of Chinese “blue chip” companies can be seen as an opportunity for private investors to benefit from China’s economic growth.

On June 21, 2016, the Bahraini government stripped Ayatollah Isa Qassem of Bahraini citizenship, further aggravating the situation with Shi’ite majority in Bahrain and triggering threats and warnings from Iranian officials. According to press reports, a crowd of 4,000 supporters of the ayatollah, gathered outside his home, some of them wearing white shrouds, a signal of their readiness to die.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a statement saying, “There is no doubt that the unwise decision of the al-Khalifa against Ayatollah Isa Qassem would add to the flame of an Islamic revolution movement in Bahrain and will form a devastating rebellion against the dependent rulers of this country.”

The United States, whose Fifth Fleet is docked in Bahrain, is well aware that the fall of an ally could be replaced by Iranian manipulated political forces. This is the main reason for the relative silence of the U.S. administration towards the punitive decisions made by the Bahrain government, the lack of its democracy, and its disproportionate retaliatory measures against the Shi’ite population.

However, on the other hand, the Obama Administration was interested in a rapprochement with Iran and could  have easily “sacrificed” the al-Khalifa family (like it did with President Mubarak of Egypt) if it was replaced by a local political faction favorable to the continuation of the American presence in the Gulf.

With an estimated cost of €25-€40 billion, how the implementation of the deal will be financed needs to be clarified. Those Cypriots who are due to receive compensation for property and/or territory will expect to see evidence that financing exists before they vote.

Commitments voiced by the EU, along with the IMF and World Bank should be firmed up sooner rather than later.

Moreover, the EU could also finance a tailored programme for Cyprus similar to the EU funded Northern Ireland PEACE initiative – aimed at supporting projects and operations which help reconcile communities and contribute towards sustainable peace